The next generation of families will be the first for decades to live in smaller accommodation than their parents warns leading academic. New research published today warns of a looming crisis in the supply of homes for families as the demand for larger houses increases. But with Government policy encouraging the building of small dwellings, and an increasing number of older people continuing to occupy larger family houses, that demand will not be met.
This new analysis of Census data, published a year after the Barker Report chronicled the endemic under supply of housing, will be published today at a Social Market Foundation seminar. Entitled “Room to Move?” the research was conducted by leading demographer Professor Dave King, Head of Population and Housing Research Group at Anglia Polytechnic University.
According to Professor King’s findings, Government policy orientated towards building smaller properties for smaller households fails to understand the aspirations and needs of British people. Dwellings with more than seven rooms are popular and widely consumed by single or two-person households.
Small households accounted for 60% of growth in the number of dwellings of seven or more rooms between 1981 and 2001, demonstrating that many small households own larger homes. Therefore, Government policy aimed at building small homes to meet theoretical demand from small households will not address the aspirations and needs of the population, and will lead to an oversupply of the ‘wrong type’ of houses.
The rise of larger properties being consumed by small households can largely be attributed to the older generation, those aged 55+, increasingly retaining larger family homes after children have moved out, or partners have died. In some ‘coastal retirement’ districts less than 10% of small households are found in houses of three rooms or less.
Based on Census trends, Professor King’s projections show that by 2021 some 2.5 million extra 7+ room dwellings will be needed, and 0.68 million fewer homes required with 4 rooms or less. This is contrary to conventional wisdom and challenges the Government’s key policy assumption that demographic trends will require many more smaller dwellings.
Announcing the research, Professor King said:
“With older generations holding on to larger houses, the current generation of child-rearing adults, particularly those aged 25 to 44, are likely to be forced to live in smaller homes than their parents. This could have serious implications on lifestyle choices, with many couples choosing to have fewer children as they will be unable to realise their aspirations to own larger family homes.”
Professor King’s research also casts doubt on the sustainability of communities as his findings point out that growing shortages of larger homes, and rising relative prices, could squeeze out middle-income households, including many key workers, leaving more polarised communities of the very poor and the well off.
Commenting on the findings Rob Ashmead, Chief Executive of the House Builders Federation, said:
“With the Budget marking the anniversary of Kate Barker’s recommendation for a substantial increase in housing supply, this ground breaking research shows that these must be the ‘right houses’ if the aspirations and needs of hard working families are to be met.
“If the Government is serious about implementing Kate Barker’s recommendations, this conflict between current planning policies and people’s housing aspirations and needs must be resolved.”
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Notes to Editors:
· A 7+ room dwelling equates to a three / four bedroom property e.g. terraced town house, semi-detached or detached house. Census data record the number of habitable rooms, which includes kitchens but not bathrooms.
· The Social Marker Foundation Seminar entitled “The Wrong Kind of Housing? Is the Government on track to deliver housing aspirations for the future?” will be addressed by Rt Hon John Denham MP, John Stewart, Director of Economic Affairs at the HBF, and Professor Dave King, Head of Population and Housing Research Group at Anglia Polytechnic University
· The Social Market Foundation was established in 1989 to provide a source of innovative economic and social policy ideas. Current work reflects a commitment to understanding how individuals, society and the state can work together to achieve the common goal of creating a just and free society.
· The House Builders Federation (HBF) is the principal trade federation for private sector house builders and voice of the house building industry in England and Wales. The HBF’s 300 member firms account for over 80% of all new houses built in England and Wales in any one year, and include companies of all sizes, ranging from multi-national, household names through regionally based businesses to small local companies.
· Professor King’s research is published in a report entitled: ”Room to Move? Household Formation, Tenure and Housing Consumption”. A complementary report entitled “Room to Move? Reconciling Housing Consumption Aspirations and Land-use Planning” examines the implications of the research and is published by John Stewart, Director of Economic Affairs of the House Builders Federation.
Further information:
Requests to attend the Seminar, for interviews, or to receive copies of the “Room to Move?” reports please contact Katie Thompson at Portland on 020 7421 6120 or email:katie.thompson@portlandpr.co.uk