The latest net addition figures have been published, showing a 6% drop in housing delivery. While this is already problematic for resolving the country’s housing crisis, with supply trailing far behind the number of homes needed and the Government’s housing targets, based on other indicators, this will likely be followed by further falls.

Net additions data is significantly delayed, with the latest figures only covering the year to March 2024. As this briefing explores, more up to date statistics – such as EPC registrations and granted planning permissions – paint a more negative picture for home building in the months since. The number of units being granted planning permission currently sits at 130,000 fewer than the 370,000 the Government is aiming for.

Net additional dwellings 2023-24

The Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government has published the latest net additions figures, finding that 221,070 homes were added to the housing stock between 1 April 2023 and 31 March 2024.

This a 6% decrease on 2022-23, with net supply down by 13,221 dwellings, and an 11% decrease from the peak in 2019-20.

The drop in supply has been almost entirely driven by a drop in new build completions. At 198,610 in 2023-24, new build completions dropped by 13,750 (6.5%) compared to last year, and are 9% below the peak.

While the period is prior to the election and the now Government’s housing ambitions, this rate of delivery is the baseline that the Government is working from to try and achieve its housing targets.

To achieve the 300,000 annual target, output needs to increase by 135%.

Other indicators of housing supply

Energy Performance Certificates

Due to a lag in the data for housing completions, it is difficult to assess exactly what impact the change in government has had on housing delivery so far. However, there are other proxies which give a reliable forecast for housing supply since March 2024.

Unfortunately for the Government and its ambitions, all other indicators of future supply point to a continuing downward trajectory in housing delivery levels.

Energy Performance Certificate registrations for new build properties, which cover the period to 30 September 2024, have been decreasing for the last couple of years. The number of EPCs registered in the year ending September 2024 was down 7% on previous year, and the rolling 12 month total is down 13% compared to 2019, when housing supply was at its peak. This represents a drop of almost 35,000 units.

Planning approvals

HBF’s Housing Pipeline Report, which tracks planning permissions granted for units and sites, also demonstrates a fall in both measures.

In the year to June 2024, 231,000 units were granted permission, the lowest figure for any 12-month period in the last decade. This is a 15% drop on the same period in 2023, and a more than 30% drop on the peak.

Looking back to the late 2010s, when housing supply was at its peak of around 240,000 homes being delivered a year, the number of homes receiving planning approval in a 12-month period was consistently around 100,000 higher (45%) than today.

The number of units being approved should prove worrying for Government as these roughly reflect the homes that will be completed in two to three years. As the graph below demonstrates, housing supply figures follow the same trajectory, just slightly behind, planning permission numbers.

This number is not only dropping at quite a rapid rate but is significantly below the figure needed to reach 300,000 new homes a year. As the Government has acknowledged, to achieve this figure, then we need to plan for significantly more. The Government has put this target at 370,000 – a 160% increase on current planning levels, or more than 130,000 additional units a year.

Council taxbase

Since 2020, the Government has published annual council taxbase statistics each November, which covers the period to the preceding September – a more up to date recording of housing delivery than the net supply statistics.

The most recent data release finds that the number of dwellings increased by 213,000 September 2023 and September 2024.

Compared to 2023, when almost 237,000 properties were added, this is a drop of over 23,000 – or 10% - on the previous year.

Affordable housing supply

Affordable housing supply for 2023-24 also dropped slightly. 62,289 affordable homes were delivered in England in 2023-24, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous year.

29% of all new build completions in 2023-24 were affordable homes – 56,971 homes.

The Government’s annual affordable housing supply statistics for 2023-24, released last week, also show:

• 44% of all affordable homes delivered in 2023-24 were funded through section 106 (nil grant) agreements – 27,658 homes.
• 93% of affordable homes delivered in England were new build (excluding unknowns), similar to the last two years

The affordable homes delivered represent an estimated 28% of the total number of gross new additions to the housing stock.

All the various data sources for housing supply point to a continuing downward pattern in housing supply over the coming years. This includes, where the data is available, for the period since the General Election.